Now that we’re down to 16 teams in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, the time has come to try and figure out which has the best chance of cutting down the nets in San Antonio in less than two weeks. The short answer? Anyone could. But that wouldn’t make for a very interesting article, would it?
That admission is necessary, however, before we embark on this exercise of ranking the remaining participants. The fact is, all the teams still in the field are more than capable of winning any game on any given day. They’re all members of major power conferences, after all, and they’ve all won their fair share of such contests to get to this point. We therefore base our power rankings upon each team’s accomplishments to date while also taking into consideration its path forward through the regionals.
We should add that while we did have the two eventual finalists at the top of our list a year ago, the upper tier of this season’s Sweet 16 looks a bit more crowded. But with all that in mind, here’s our attempt to put them in order of championship likelihood.
No. 1 Florida
Our expert (snort) bracket has the Gators winning the whole thing. We’ll stick to that, though they needed everything in the tank to get past two-time defending champ Connecticut in the second round. Now that they’ve made it to San Francisco, they match up favorably with the rest of the teams in the region.
No. 2 Duke
Bearing in mind what we said above about Florida, however, it’s difficult to envision anyone in the field beating the Blue Devils if they maintain this level of play. The hot shooting of Tyrese Proctor has to be especially scary for future opponents who already have to contend with Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel.
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No. 3 Houston
The Cougars have the stingiest scoring defense in the nation, let alone the remaining tournament field. They’ll need to be locked in at that end when they arrive in Indianapolis, where they’ll be playing de facto road games against Purdue and whichever SEC squad emerges from the other side. But this is a rugged group that has enough offense to sustain itself and draws inspiration from last year’s early exit.
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No. 4 Auburn
The committee designated Auburn the top overall seed but did the Tigers no favors with this loaded region. On the plus side they’ll be in their own back yard in Atlanta, but Big Ten tournament champ Michigan is playing as well as anyone, and after that a possible date with Tom Izzo and Michigan State could be in the offing.
No. 5 Michigan State
Speaking of the Spartans, we’ll put them atop the list of non-No. 1 seeds since they have arguably the most depth of any team still alive and size to deal with bigger teams. Should they get by Ole Miss, they’ll face either a familiar foe in the Wolverines or an Auburn squad that might have peaked too soon.
No. 6 Kentucky
Yes, Tennessee is seeded higher in this region, but the Wildcats swept the Volunteers in the regular season. We’ll therefore put them higher in the pecking order until Tennessee proves otherwise. The return of veteran point guard Lamont Butler has helped the Wildcats’ already formidable offense operate more smoothly through the first two rounds.
No. 7 Tennessee
With that said, however, the Volunteers have also improved their shooting in the postseason. If they find a way to get over the hump against the Wildcats, their imposing defense would give them a good chance against either Houston or Purdue. A lot will depend on the play of point guard Zakai Zeigler.
No. 8 Michigan
Did we mention the South region is loaded? That No. 5 seed before Michigan’s name might be more a function of the Big Ten tournament final’s late placement on the Selection Sunday schedule, as it can on occasion prevent the committee from adjusting the bracket on short notice. But the ‘play the hand you’re dealt’ approach has served the Wolverines well thus far, and they’ll be well prepared for this date with Auburn.
No. 9 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are banged up, but they still enter Thursday’s contest against Arkansas as slight favorites. They’ll likely face an uphill climb advancing further, especially if Florida awaits in the Elite Eight, but as the only Big 12 squad to claim a win against Houston they can’t be counted out.
No. 10 Alabama
A No. 2 seed that reach the Final Four a year ago should probably be higher on the list. But this year’s version of the Crimson Tide is more prone to defensive lapses, a trait that could send them packing as early as their next contest against a high-scoring Brigham Young team. They found a way in the regional rounds last year to put it all together. Perhaps, Mark Sears and Grant Nelson can turn back the clock.
No. 11 Purdue
The Boilermakers are an interesting case. On the one hand they’re an experienced group familiar with the pressures of March, but they’ve had to rework their system with a literally large piece of last year’s puzzle gone. A cold spell from the arc or a spate of turnovers would be fatal against any of the remaining teams in their region, but they’ll have a significant portion of the Indianapolis crowd in their corner.
No. 12 Brigham Young
We have the Cougars above a couple of the 4 seeds on this list, and we still might have them too low. They’ve won 11 of their last 12, and Richie Saunders has emerged as one of the stars of the tournament. BYU will have no fear about running with high-scoring Alabama, but a probable date with Duke in the subsequent round could be the end of the line.
No. 13 Arizona
Of the six Sweet 16 teams that also reached this point last season, we give the Wildcats the shortest odds of advancing farther simply because of their next assignment. Granted they’re playing considerably better than they were in November when they managed only 55 points on their home floor against Duke, but the Blue Devils will still pose matchup problems across the entire lineup.
No. 14 Maryland
No. 15 Arkansas
While one underestimates any team coached by John Calipari at one’s peril, there is nevertheless a reason that Arkansas is a 10 seed, namely that two-digit number in the loss column. The Razorbacks earned enough wins in the SEC to squeak into the field, but they aren’t likely to string many more together to go much farther. Should they find a way to get by Texas Tech, however, it is worth noting that they played Florida to an eight-point game in January.
No. 16 Mississippi
Somebody has to bring up the rear in a rankings list. The Rebels get the honor for a couple of reasons. They’ve undeniably impressed in March but just as undeniably benefitted from facing a short-handed Iowa State. Should they find a way to get by Michigan State, they’d likely encounter an Auburn squad that has already beaten them three times.