There’s one behemoth, and a bunch of wannabes.
The Los Angeles Dodgers doubled down on their World Series championship with a colossal offseason, creating a monstrous, nine-deep pitching rotation and fortifying a roster that looks primed for a repeat. And their unofficial winter championship is reflected in USA TODAY Sports’ projected win totals for the 2025 season.
Our six-person panel forecasts the Dodgers as the lone 100-game winner, while parity rules everywhere else: Three division winners are projected to win just 86 games, while five American League teams are clustered within four games for the three available wild card berths. A look at our panel’s aggregate record projections:
AL East
They lost one superstar, but the New York Yankees (94-68) reloaded sufficiently to likely race ahead of the pack and win their third division title in four years … The Baltimore Orioles (87-75) are projected to slide from 99 to 91 to 87 wins, but a playoff ticket – and perhaps their first postseason win since 2014 – should still be in the offing. … The Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) have tall tasks ahead of them – retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and snagging a playoff spot after so many foiled free-agent pursuits. … Yes, the Boston Red Sox (83-79) are better and more closely resemble a serious organization. No, that won’t get them much more than the hope that the roulette wheel lands on red by September’s end … You never discount the Tampa Bay Rays’ (78-84) ability to surprise, but a lineup with questionable punch may not be able to support a rotation welcoming back Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen.
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AL Central
A moribund division awakened with a roar last year, and now the Detroit Tigers (86-76) are best positioned to repeat the 2024 success that saw three teams reach the postseason. … It should be a very close race with the Kansas City Royals (84-78), who fortified the bullpen with Carlos Estévez and the lineup with Jonathan India and return the rotation troika of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. … Subtracting as the Cleveland Guardians (82-80) did just won’t get it done in the Central anymore, as a stout bullpen is of little use with a diminished offense and a rotation reliant on Shane Bieber’s smooth return from elbow surgery … There’s always a chance with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober at the front of the rotation, but the cash-strapped Minnesota Twins (80-82) likely had too docile a winter to keep up with the pack. … Just think: A projected 27% increase in wins (to 52) would still result in the Chicago White Sox losing 110 games.
AL West
With Nathan Eovaldi re-upped, the Texas Rangers (86-76) could be devastating should Jacob deGrom be fully operational and Kumar Rocker takes the next step in his progression. … Rolling the wild-card dice is the next logical destination for a Houston Astros (85-77) team that keeps losing core parts from a franchise that saw its ALCS appearance streak end at seven. … No word on whether retaining Jorge Polanco and adding Donovan Solano made the season-ticket phone lines light up, but it’s safe to say the Seattle Mariners (85-77) probably didn’t do enough to upgrade an offense that can’t keep up with its sterling pitching staff. … Irony, thy name is Athletics (73-89): Just as they begin four years in a minor-league park in West Sacramento the major league product is almost stomachable. … The strange pattern of adding upper middle class free agents to a mix of quick-to-the-majors, low-ceiling position players continues in Anaheim. Or maybe Yusei Kikuchi is in fact the guy to lead the Los Angeles Angels (70-92) out of the wilderness.
NL East
Sure, they went belly-up in the NLDS against a division rival that proceeded to drop nearly $1 billion on one player, but the Philadelphia Phillies (91-71) are still the squad to beat here, especially if Jesús Luzardo can stay healthy at the back of the rotation. … Juan Soto totally makes the New York Mets (89-73) better, but two other free agents will likely determine their fate: Pitchers Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes. … Is this it for the Atlanta Braves (89-73)? Bounceback years from various sluggers should keep them in the playoff mix, but after a so-far tepid offseason, their margin for error has dwindled. … The Washington Nationals won 71 games the past two seasons and are now pegged for 73. Sounds about right for a franchise that should be augmenting an emerging but still incomplete core. … For all their checkered history, the Miami Marlins (63-99) have never suffered consecutive 100-loss seasons. So that’s the first order of business for new manager Clayton McCullough.
NL Central
Has the pack finally come back to the Chicago Cubs (86-76)? Attrition and indifference elsewhere are almost as soothing a balm as renting slugger Kyle Tucker for the year. … We never count out the Milwaukee Brewers (83-79), but a third consecutive division title likely hinges on Brandon Woodruff’s smooth return from shoulder surgery. … Keep an eye on the Cincinnati Reds (81-81), who could be a different team with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl back from injury-marred seasons. … A weird executive transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom has predictably left the St. Louis Cardinals (75-87) in limbo and Nolan Arenado, for now, reporting to Jupiter. … Paul Skenes and rotation mate Jared Jones give the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88) something to build upon, but a bevy of lineup and rotation holes remain in the second of Skenes’ six years of team control.
NL West
Should be a wild training camp battle for that No. 9 starter job for the Los Angeles Dodgers (102-60), whose firewall of pitching smooths Rōki Sasaki’s transition to the major leagues. … A real go-for-it vibe with the Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75), since this will probably be the only season Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are all in the rotation. They’ll pose some problems for the Dodgers. … Will the San Diego Padres (87-75) keep it together for one more go? Dylan Cease and Michael King once again provide a nucleus for a playoff team – but would be difference-makers elsewhere if the Padres decide to cut bait. … A new front office regime can’t defy the San Francisco Giants’ (81-81) magnetic attraction to the .500 mark, even if Willy Adames brightens the clubhouse and lineup. … We’d say don’t sleep on a Colorado Rockies (61-101) lineup that should bang, but the pitching staff will once again pull them toward the basement.